By Patrick F. Cannon
The country appears to be gripped by the fear that Donald Trump might actually get the Republican nomination for President, and even be elected. The fear, of course, is most intense among the left, but is shared by moderate Republicans, and haters of combovers everywhere.
Let me start to dampen the flames a bit by looking at some numbers from sources other than the political parties. First, the largest number of voters now consider themselves Independent, as follows:
Independent 39 percent
Democratic 32 percent
Republican 23 percent
Of the Republicans, the consensus of national polls shows that approximately 29 percent of voters likely to vote in primaries favor Trump as of today. Even with my feeble mathematical ability, it seems to suggest that 71 percent favor someone else. So, Trump has 29 percent of 23 percent, hardly cause for immediate alarm.
Let me suggest that about 10 percent of Americans actually would love to have him as President, just as another 10 percent still believe Marxism will win out in the end. Another group would rather have anybody but Hillary Clinton as President. It’s interesting to me that Clinton’s lead over her likely challengers is largest against Trump, and she is actually running behind Marco Rubio. Sensible Republicans and Independents will take notice. By the way, Trump even trails Bernie Sanders in the same polls.
Now, I do realize that in the real world things are a bit more complicated. Even though fewer voters than ever consider themselves Republican, the party now controls both houses of Congress and has the majority among governors and state legislatures. Obviously, many Independent voters prefer more conservative candidates locally and statewide. And – it’s been suggested — prefer a divided Federal government as a way to prevent a single party from imposing something like the increasingly unaffordable Affordable Care Act without a nationwide consensus.
Anyway, if you’re having nightmares or losing sleep worrying about Donald Trump, consider some of the actual numbers before you turn out the lights. It’s bad enough we have to put up with him during our waking hours.
But it’s good to have a backup plan. Mine is to claim my Irish citizenship and watch the Sun go down on Galway Bay.
Copyright 2015, by Patrick F. Cannon
5 thoughts on “Trumpaphobia”
I haven’t run into any actual Trump supporters yet, not even in Mayberry (mostly Sanders, Cruz, and the occasional Carson). But with the curse of this eternal primary season it’s not easy to sort through what is actually going on. We will all have a better picture after there is an actual primary election where real people have to cast real votes.
I suspect Trump is boosting his poll numbers largely with smoke and mirrors, and in the process degrading the level of presidential discourse. I doubt he can sustain it once real voting begins and the number of viable candidates is reduced to two or three contenders. Put him up against a Rubio, a Cruz, or a Christie and he loses that illusion of formidable invincibility.
Unfortunately, if I’m mistaken, I can’t fall back on any Irish ancestry. Somehow watching the sun set on the Bay of Naples is not reassuring.
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Not too sure about Galway either, but both are probably better than the Bay of Rio!
Thank you Pat for this gift of perspective! I will sleep better tonight:)
This is the first time I’ve ever felt a modicum of relief. Pat, your theory is eminently logical, as always, and I truly hope you are right. I personally have yet to meet anyone who can stop guffawing long enough to assure me that they would never vote for that narcissistic egomaniac.
Now he’s mad at Time Magazine for not picking him as their Person of the Year. The next thing you know, he’ll be shaking his fist at the sky and bellowing at God for not relinquishing His Holy Throne in Heaven to Trump.
Kathleen, we’ve had some bad Presidents, but none came close to this buffoon.